Expected Strokes
Expected strokes is the average number of shots a golfer is likely to need to finish a hole from a given spot, based on the distance to the hole and the type of lie. The figure comes from tracked shot data and is the baseline behind the strokes gained statistic.
What is expected strokes?
Every position on a golf course carries a number. Stand 150 yards out in the fairway, and tracked tour data says a PGA Tour player takes about 2.98 shots on average to get the ball in the hole from there. That figure is the expected strokes value for the spot.
The number depends on two things: how far the ball sits from the hole, and the lie it sits on. A ball 150 yards out in the fairway has a lower expected strokes value than one 150 yards out in the rough, because the rough makes the next shot harder. Skill level changes the number too. A PGA Tour player and a 15-handicap amateur have different expected strokes from the same position, since the tour player holes out in fewer shots on average.
The point of expected strokes is to give golfers a fair yardstick for a single shot. Par judges a whole hole and treats every player the same. Expected strokes measures one position at a time and adjusts for difficulty, which is why it sits at the foundation of modern golf analytics.
How expected strokes is calculated
The values are not guesses. They come from enormous shot databases, most famously the PGA Tour’s ShotLink system, which records the location and result of millions of shots. Mark Broadie, a professor at Columbia Business School, sorted through that data and built the first expected strokes benchmarks, which he laid out in his 2014 book Every Shot Counts.
The method is simple in principle. Take every shot ever hit from, say, 150 yards in the fairway, count how many more shots each player needed to hole out, and average them. That average is the expected strokes value for 150 yards in the fairway. Repeat for every distance and lie, and the result is a full table covering the course.
Here is a sample of PGA Tour expected strokes values, drawn from Pinpoint’s published benchmark data:
| Position | Expected strokes (PGA Tour) |
|---|---|
| 400 yards, tee | 3.99 |
| 160 yards, fairway | 2.98 |
| 20 yards, bunker | 2.53 |
| 30 feet, green | 1.98 |
| 5 feet, green | 1.26 |
| In the hole | 0.00 |
Amateur golfers rarely had access to numbers like these. That changed once shot-tracking apps such as Arccos, Shot Scope, and Hole19 started building benchmarks for players at every handicap level.
Expected strokes vs par
This is where most confusion starts. Par and expected strokes both describe how many shots a hole should take, but they work differently.
Par is a fixed target set by the course. A hole is a par 3, par 4, or par 5, and that label never changes no matter who is playing. It assumes a skilled golfer reaches the green with two strokes to spare for a pair of putts.
Expected strokes is a measured average that shifts with the situation. It can read 4.10 from one tee and 4.40 from another, and it lands on decimals rather than whole numbers because it reflects real results across thousands of shots. Par is a rule of thumb. Expected strokes is a statistic.
| Feature | Par | Expected strokes |
|---|---|---|
| Set by | Course design | Shot-tracking data |
| Value type | Whole number (3, 4, 5) | Decimal (e.g. 4.10) |
| Same for everyone? | Yes | No, it varies by skill level |
| Changes with the lie? | No | Yes |
| Main use | Scoring target | Measuring shot quality |
A par 4 might carry an expected strokes value of 3.99 for a tour pro, which means the average tour player actually scores a shade better than par on it. For a 15-handicap, that same hole could sit above 5.
How expected strokes relates to strokes gained
Expected strokes is the ingredient. Strokes gained is the dish. On its own, an expected strokes value just describes a position. It turns useful when two of those values get compared across a single shot.
Strokes gained works out the quality of a shot with subtraction: the expected strokes where the ball started, minus the expected strokes where it finished, minus one for the shot played. A positive answer means the shot beat the benchmark. A negative answer means it lost ground.
Picture a player 200 yards out in the fairway, where the tour expected strokes value is 3.16. From there, a good approach that finishes 20 feet from the pin lands in a spot worth 1.87. Subtract: 3.16 minus 1.87 minus 1 leaves 0.29. That shot gained 0.29 strokes on the tour benchmark, and the example comes straight from Hole19’s own breakdown.
Expected strokes answers the question “how hard is this position?” Strokes gained answers “how well did that shot go?” People mix the two up all the time, but one is the reference point, and the other is the score measured against it.
Related Golf Terms
- Total driving — A combined ranking of driving distance and accuracy.
- Strokes gained tee to green — Strokes gained across all shots except putting.
- Ball striking — A combined measure of driving and approach-play performance.
- Three-putt avoidance — A measure of how rarely a player three-putts.
- Strokes gained total — A player’s overall performance versus a scoring baseline.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is expected strokes the same as par?
No. Par is a fixed whole number set for each hole and stays the same for every golfer. Expected strokes is a data-based average that moves with distance, lie, and skill level, and it usually lands on a decimal.
Who invented expected strokes?
The benchmarks trace back to Mark Broadie, a Columbia Business School professor, who built them from PGA Tour ShotLink data and published them in his 2014 book Every Shot Counts.
Can amateurs get expected strokes for their own level?
Yes. Shot-tracking apps such as Arccos, Shot Scope, and Hole19 provide expected strokes benchmarks for players across the handicap range, from high-handicap beginners up to scratch.
What does a lower expected strokes value mean?
It means the position is easier to finish from. A 5-foot putt has a low value because it usually takes a touch more than one stroke, while a long shot from a bunker carries a higher one.
Is expected strokes only used on the PGA Tour?
No. It began with tour data, but the same idea now runs inside consumer golf apps, coaching tools, and amateur handicap analysis.
Sources
- Broadie, Mark. Every Shot Counts. Gotham Books, 2014.
https://everyshotcounts.com - PGA Tour. “ShotLink.” Accessed August 2026.
https://shotlink.com - Pinpoint. “How Strokes Gained Works.” Accessed August 2026.
https://www.pinpoint.golf/blog/how-strokes-gained-works.html - Hole19. “Strokes Gained Golf: What It Is and How to Use It.” Accessed August 2026.
https://www.hole19golf.com/the-19th-hole/strokes-gained-golf-explained - DataGolf. “How Much Is 10 Yards Worth?” Accessed August 2026.
https://datagolf.com/how-much-is-10-yards-worth - CBS Sports. “There’s a Lot to Learn from Golf’s Strokes Gained Stats.” Accessed August 2026.
https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/theres-a-lot-to-learn-from-golfs-strokes-gained-stats-including-its-new-one
